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Paper 107 -- Operational Risk Assessment For Airspace Planning

ICAO policy requires that States maintain an acceptable level of safety in the provision of air traffic services (ATS). As a consequence, airspace planners have to adapt this high level safety requirement in the context of their specific operational environment, whenever they implement a new procedure. The main difficulty lies in the nature of the risk, which, over the years, has gradually switched from a technical risk (due to either a failure or a poor performance of technical equipment), to an operational risk .In other terms, although the performance of navigation and surveillance has drastically improved over the years, the level of safety (expressed in terms of fatal accidents per flying hours) has not followed the same evolution. One of the reasons is that, for some scenarios of operational errors, the accuracy of navigation contributes to increase the risk of collision, as we show in the sequel of this paper. In this paper we span the current methodologies used for quantitative risk assessment, and we explain their limitations for modeling scenarios of operational errors. Then, we introduce a new methodology, supported by an analytical collision risk modeling together with a software implementation, and we present two applications of this methodology, one involving the assessment of the operational risk in a given part of the airspace, and another one for the detection of “hot spots”.
Theme: Safety in ATM
Keywords: separation standards, quantitative safety assessment
Posted by: Karim Mehadhebi
Note: Unset Received On Jan 26, 2007

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