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Paper 137 -- MODELLING AND ESTIMATION OF SEPARATION CRITERIA FOR AIRBORNE TIME-BASED SPACING OPERATION

Airborne Spacing procedures are amongst the several ATM innovations that aim to delegate part of the aircraft separation responsibility to the flight crew. In particular, airborne time-based spacing (TBS) has been developed and tested with success in many experiments in the recent years. However, there is still little knowledge about hazardous events probabilities in this application, such as the ones related with separation loss. This paper presents a study formulating the risk evaluation problem as the estimation of the probability of occurring separation loss events for a large scale stochastic hybrid system. The large size of the system state space poses challenges to the Monte Carlo simulation of these rare events. This paper applies a recently developed novel method for speeding up rare event Monte Carlo simulations to the TBS concept of operations.
Theme: Safety in ATM
Keywords: ASAS spacing, Accident Risk Assessment, Air Traffic Control, Airborne Separation Assistance System (ASAS), Monte Carlo Simulation, Safety, Sequencing and Merging Operations, Simulation, Stochastic Systems, TLS, TMA: terminal control area, accident, risk estimation, safety assessment, stochastic model
Posted by: Italo De Oliveira / Other authors: Paulo Cugnasca, Henk Blom, Bert Bakker
Note: Unset Received On Jan 26, 2007

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